Trendspotting: Four for 2024

Staying six weeks ahead of the Zeitgeist. Here are the trends I'm living and watching.

What’s new with you this year? I’m curious, leave your reply in the comments, or shoot me a note.

Winter photo dump. Some pics since we last were in touch.

I believe when you stop paying attention to trends you get stagnant, and life gets boring. From Vegas to coworking to angel investing, I’ve built my career on being early on things that eventually enter the Zeitgeist. Here are 4 things on my radar this year.

1. SBNR - I wasn’t even aware that there was a trend of spiritual but not religious (SBNR) until I came across the acronym last year that put a name to the belief system I identified with. But I have been aware of the declining participation in religion by young people corresponding to the rise of religion as a polarizing, moralizing, controlling force in our society. Not new, in fact, as old as religion itself, but what I find interesting is the number of people who are taking a step beyond identifying as atheist or agnostic and finding their own way to a spiritual path. For me, the recognition that I was activated in nurturing my mind (work, intellectual pursuits, reading) and body (health, exercise, cold plunges 😂) but still was left with a feeling of “what makes life meaningful?” This has opened up a whole new array of practices and pursuits that fill my spirit and have led to a newfound feeling of fulfillment. 

2. California-Sober-Curious-Dry-Jan-Ish - “Is it legal?” I asked Mark Bryan, the guitarist from Hootie and the Blowfish last January on the beach in Todos Santos, MX. “Yep.” He was telling me about a hemp-derived delta-8 seltzer he had just invested in called Hi Seltzer that is legally sold in states where cannabis is not yet legal. Sure enough, I purchased it at Lighthouse, our local beer store last summer in Wrightsville, and can attest, it gets you buzzed like weed. But without the hangover. Which is the point. The California-sober trend is real, enabled by the number of safer, less toxic ways of getting a relaxing buzz.  I’m fascinated (and experimenting with) the growing trend of alternative conscious altering options out there, especially if you live in a state where you can get cannabis and psychedelics delivered to your door.  When I grew up, there was one option available and socially acceptable, you got drunk. Today, there are so many more socially acceptable paths from fully sober to alternative substances. The macro trends clearly point to a decline in drinking. I’m curious about our collective sobriety, are you drinking less? Substituting? 

3. Power to the people - This trend is not new, just accelerating. One of my mantras is that the march of technology is inexorable.  When technology disrupts us, we wish we could put it back in the bottle. Last year, it disrupted my software company hardcore. A year ago in March, I had a call with an owner of a similar software company who said he was planning for his company's demise. By the end of 2023, we had been disrupted. AI is a steamroller, leaving jobs that involve complexity paired with repetition in its wake. Another axiom of technology - if it can be automated, it will be - is at work here. So, why my optimistic headline to this trend? Because we can each harness the same power for our own gain. As always, entrepreneurship is about making something people want. Using AI tools, the lift to create a successful business is ever smaller, requiring less time, capital, consultants, then ever. I’m more bullish on solopreneurship and lifestyle businesses than ever. If you can create a product or experience people want, you can build a thriving business.

4. Maybe we're not doomed - Our world certainly feels more conflicted, in crisis, and hurtling towards imminent destruction than ever. Especially if you watch, er, scroll, the news. From our democracy to climate, we’re inundated with messages of impending doom. It’s no wonder from anxiety disorder in our kids to catastrophic deaths of despair, people are depressed. Maybe it's time to stretch out our tech-neck, put down the screens and go bathe in a forest. Last year, I got the book “The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet” - yikes, no wonder people tune out important messages around climate change. I just read “Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet” with a much more optimistic message. With record low voter participation in our democracy and the decimation of non-partisan sources of truth in the media, the right message for the moment is resilience. If we tell the next generation they will be the last, we’re propagating our own doom for cheap clicks. As Henry Ford said, “Whether you think you can, or you think you can't – you're right.” 

What do you think? I’d love to hear what you think is going to be a defining trend of 2024. 

What am I up to? I’ve traded the startup world for the music business. Last weekend, Anne and I went to see one of my new favorite bands, King Dream. At the merch table after the show, Jeremy thanked me for being the first to buy his new record on vinyl.  I still love being a first believer.

Let me extend an invite to check out King Dream in person at our expanded 3-day Cosmico festival. We’re hosting it at a beautiful lodge called Dawn Ranch in Guerneville, California May 17-19. Our lineup includes Susto, Sam Grisman, Jeffrey Arevalo (Goose), Jackie Green, Pedro Arevalo (Duane Betts & Palmetto Hotel), Andrew Duhon Trio, Afrolicious, Moonsville Collective, King Dream, Object Heavy, Aardvark and more.

I took my conference planning experience from Collision, TribeCon & Launch Fest, where we used to pair tech conferences with music festivals, and have gone straight to the source, producing the music festival directly. We’ll be hosting an Analog Retreat in conjunction with Cosmico this year. It also happens to coincide with a birthday for me, the big 5-0. We’d love to have you join us.

Stay curious, my friends.

✌️ & ❤️

- Chris